Esta semana reunión de la FED, ¿quitarán los estímulos? ¿cómo afectará a la bolsa?

Extractos de la conferencia de ayer: Pregunta a Bernanke

Mr. Chairman you've always argued that its the stock of assets that the Federal Reserve holds which affects long-term interest rates. How do you reconcile that with the very sharp rise in real interest rates that we've seen in recent weeks? Do you think the markets are correctly interpreting what you think is most likely to be the future path of the Federal Reserve's stock of assets.

Respuesta

Well we were a little puzzled by that. It was bigger than can be explained by changes in the ultimate stock of asset purchases within reasonable ranges, so I think we have to conclude there are other factors at work as well, including, again, maybe some optimism about the economy, maybe uncertainty is rising, so I'm agreeing with you that it seems larger than can be explained by a changing view of monetary policy. It's difficult to judge whether the markets are in sync or not, generally speaking though I think what I've seen from analysts and market participants is not wildly different from what the committee is thinking and as I tried today to communicate. I think the most important thing that I want to try to convey again is that it's important not to say "this day, that date, this time," it's important to understand that our policies are economic dependent, and in particular if financial conditions move in a way that make this economic scenario unlikely, for example, then that would be a reason for us to adjust our policy.

We do believe -- although, you know, there's room for debate -- we do believe that the primary effect of our -- of our purchases is through the stock that we hold, because that stock has been withdrawn from markets, and the prices of those assets have to adjust to balance supply and demand, and we've taken out some of the supply, and so the prices go up, the yields go down. So that seems to me consistent with the -- with the idea that we're still adding liquidity, we're still adding accommodation to the system.

Un saludo,

Es curioso ver como a la pregunta de por qué están subiendo los tipos reales a largo plazo si se supone que los estaba manteniendo la QE, Bernanke responde que es difícil de responder, que hay otros factores en juego... ¿realmente no lo sabe? ¿o no lo quiere decir?

parece que el mercado no se lo ha tomado muy bien -2,34% el IBEX Y Eurostoxx -2,5%

Los QE han hecho subir a las bolsas a máximos ( por supuesto el IBEX no siguió este comportamiento).

Al intuir que los QE pueden acabarse las bolsas bajan (por supuesto el Ibex si sigue este comportamiento).

Así es nuestro amado índice, solo se suma al lado malo.

Yo diría más bien que el mercado lo ha tomado como una excusa para barrer dinero abajo primero y despues arriba. No se pueden tomar a mal que la FED mantenga los tipos intactos y que mantenga la compra de bonos, además de decir que la economía USA mejora y que si el paro baja del 6.5, algo que nos indicaría que la mayor economia mundial, EEUU, crece con fuera, sería cuando rebajarían progresivamente los estímulos. Yo creo que para los mercados debería ser una gran noticia ya que indica recuperación, pero ya sabemos que hay que coger excusas, sin bajadas no hay subidas y sin subidas no hay bajadas, así es.