Anonimo
16/02/12 22:32
Ha comentado en el artículo ¡Un Español, Un Japonés Y Warren Buffett!
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In the summer of 1929, a journalist named Samuel Crowther interviewed John J. Raskob, a senior financial executive at General Motors. [...] In the interview, Raskob claimed that America was on the verge of a tremendous industrial expansion. He maintained that by putting just 15$ per month into good common stocks, investors could expect their wealth to grow steadily to 80000$ over the next 20 years. [...]On Spetember 3, 1929, a few days after Raskob's ideas appeared, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a historic high of 381.17. Seven weeks later stocks crashed. The next 34 months saw the most devastating decline in share values in U.S. history. [...]Raskob's advice was ridiculed and denounced for years to come. It was said to represent the insanity of those who believed that the market could rise forever [...]Conventional wisdom holds that Raskob's foolhardy advice epitomizes the mania that periodically overruns Wall Street. But is that veredict fair? The answer is decidedly no. If you calculate the value of the portfolio of an investor who followed Raskob's advice in 1929, patiently putting 15$ a month into stocks, you find that his accumulation exceeded that of someone who placed the same money in Treadury bills after less than 4 years! By 1949 his stock portfolio would have accumulated almost 9000$, a return of 7.86 percent, more than double the annual return in bonds. After 30 years the portfolio would have grown to over 60000$, with an annual return rising to 12.72 percent.(Stocks for the long run - Jeremy J. Siegel)--------------------------------------------Pongo el tochazo de anécdota para ilustrar que el mar de fondo de la bolsa es tan alcista que incluso invirtiendo en un mal momento se puede llegar a obtener una buena rentabilidad a largo plazo. Con datos USA desde 1802 en períodos de 1 año las acciones ganan a los bonos un 60% de las veces. En períodos de 10 años un 80%, en periodos de 20 años un 90% y en periodos de 30 el 100% de las veces.No es al azar a lo que se encomienda el inversor a largo plazo, sino a la acumulación física de capital que ocurre en las empresas año a año y que puede verse en sus balances, que es la causa física del mar de fondo alcista de la bolsa.